Will I wake up one day to see everyone using Linux.
Things will mostly plod along slowly but then there will be some big event that causes usage to jump in a huge way, but not in the way that nerds like us want to see.
Actually, that has already happened. Linux is the most used OS in the world. But that’s because it underlies Android, and that’s not what most of us mean when we are talk about average people using Linux. We want to see people embracing open technologies and while Android might be open compared to Windows, it’s not open in the way that we want to see.
If Linux on the desktop ever takes off in a big way, I bet it will also be in a way that makes me say “that’s not what I meant…”
You never know … maybe THIS year!
The way windoze 11 is going - people really hating it - you never know, but I’m not holding my breath. Linux is still very niche, and people are wary of “strange” “new” things, especially FREE ones - where’s the catch? I’ve seen it surge and blossom over the years, but it’s still got a really tiny install base (as long as you don’t count Android and embedded tech, where the OS and kernel are largely irrelevant to the user). But I don’t see people moving over to Linux in droves any time soon, really: I’ve seen too much.
For context, I’ve been using it since [dredges up old memories] slackware was new, so about 1994, when a work colleague and I installed it (off about 20 floppies) onto an old 386sx PC with probably 4MB of RAM. Been using it ever since - and from Red Hat 4 onwards (about 1999) it’s been my only OS on my own computers. I’ve always preferred it, and I’ve seen it grow in so many ways - I’d still use it if it was illegal. I haven’t tried EVERY distro, but I have tried most. These days I mostly stick with Debian or Debian-based distro’s (I’m currently on Mint LMDE).
cool nice to hear from a veteran. my first linux was SUSE just pick it for the cool logo,
Had to do some work with SuSE post Novell acquisition for a customer. IIRC the package manager is a bit odd, but I haven’t looked at it in what nearly 15 years, so I can’t really remember much about it. What I CAN remember involved running packet traces using Wireshark - it was mostly network problems, I think, so nothing to do with SuSE. It was certainly very popular in Europe, though I have no idea what they’re doing these days!
I think the proposition of avoiding American tech in general will become more and more attractive in the coming years. Governments are already trying to move away from Microsoft for national security reasons. That’ll have the knock-on effect of putting Linux and Libra Office in front of more people at work and school.
In combination with the advances in Linux gaming, This may be the first time since the 80s where the OS you’re first exposed to will be anything other than Windows or Mac.
This may be the first time since the 80s where the OS you’re first exposed to will be anything other than Windows or Mac.
We’re already well past that point, honestly. Kids graduating high school this year grew up on iPadOS and ChromeOS. Last year I taught someone who is going to college this fall how a directory structure works.
As for me, our household is a Windows-free environment (except for a VM on my personal laptop that I use for DRM’d ebooks). We’re Mac-free except for my work computer. My kids are learning Linux as their first real desktop OS (previously they had only used school Chromebooks), and it’s been pretty smooth sailing.
Linux is the most deployed OS on the planet, and the comparisons are not even close.
If you mean just for Desktop, it depends on what’s happening with the MacBook Neo, and if Microsoft gets their shit together and reverses course I suppose.
Stagnation around 5% tops.
Slow and steady, with occasional spikes when a government or mega-corp does something particularly terrible.
Big jump. To call it slow and steady now is nearly a lie.
A government will send out an RFP to Lenovo, HP, Dell to provide end-user workstations running their government standard distribution. It will be a 10-15 year commitment. This establishes hardware support.
They also establish a support agreement with an office suite.
This combo effectively sets up hardware and software support that becomes available to home users.
It’s almost the same idea as setting minimum wage or travel reimbursements for government workers and private sector follows.
People will use “shitty corporate Linux” because no corporation is going to pre-install an OS that isn’t shitty spyware because spying on you is worth money and why on earth would a corporation leave money on the table?
That’s up to Microsoft.
i think that linux usage will stagnate around 10% of people using it, with 90% instead choosing not to operate any computer at all …
Everyone’s already using Linux. Linux desktop? Guess we will see if desktop even survives the next few years. I know, unpopular opinion on Lemmy, but I’m pretty sure LLMs will redefine how we interact with our computers, apps, and work. Probably it’ll be more like just talking to a wearable and it’ll use whatever screens are nearby if it needs to show you something. You won’t switch apps, you won’t use the web, it’ll all just happen as fast as you can dream and say it
I think smart home already proved that talking to our appliances doesn’t work. Imo LLMs will re-define how some people think, maybe lots of tasks will be delegated, but there will still be surfing, gaming, development, etc… at least in the next 10 years I don’t think desktop will change significantly.
