The war in Iran has put 2026 on track for a dip in annual fossil-fuel carbon emissions

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/54245880

The U.S. war with Iran has raised fossil fuel prices so much that the resulting drop in oil demand has put the world on track to see a rare dip in carbon emissions from these sources in 2026.

Between 2019 and 2025, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels grew by about 0.8 percent annually, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change. But 2026 is set to buck that trend: high oil prices, as well as the continued rise of green technology—solar power, wind and electric cars—will cause a “short-term” 0.4 percent drop, according to the study.

“The high petrol prices following the war in Iran are reducing oil use and keeping emissions low,” says the study’s lead author Corinne Le Quéré, a professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia in England. “But that’s not the whole story: The expansion of renewable energy has progressed a lot in recent years, led by China. And [along with electric vehicles], this is offsetting two thirds of the growing demand for energy.”

With all sources of carbon considered, including deforestation, total global CO2 emissions are set to continue increasing.

  • gian English
    2·
    6 hours ago

    Well yeah the solution is to minimize the incentive for people to want to live rurally, while of course allowing them access to efficient vehicles, while incentivizing people to move to cities, where public transport can dominate the transportation infrastructure for the vast majority of the people on the planet (those who live in cities)

    No, it is not a solution, it is only a way to other, probably worse, problems. You are basically proposing to replace all the towns and villages in every country with few megacities, I don’t think that it will work the way you are thinking.

    Personally I think it’s way too late for such significant and structural changes to be applied before we start experiencing mass famine, death, and of course resulting wars over resources. Our government institutions act too slowly for any of that to happen, and climate change is accelerating.

    It is not that it is too late, it is that it a stupid thing to do.