That must mean China is only months away from major breakthroughs that will replace ASML in their supply chains and show everyone that they never needed them in the first place. They only bought from the dutch out of the good of their hearts. Or so they will claim and tankies as well as some tech illiterates tech journalists will gobble that up like they do every time.
Clearly behind them there’s the USA pushing for that.
Isn’t this dangerous, like playing with fire? I don’t think that China is going to be “oh no the software license is expire, we give up and close all the factories”, rather going to invest billions to find an alternative and make ASML irrelevant in the country. It won’t be fast to see cloned machines but isn’t it better to keep them tied to licenses and expensive periodic maintenance instead of pushing a temporary roadblock that will lead to the development of workarounds, unofficial cheap maintenance routines and cloned machines?
I don’t think you understand the mountain of technology advancement that those machines need in order to keep operating. I won’t elaborate since there’s so much on this topic already on the interwebs. Needless to say. The machines can only operate for a few weeks at a time and often require maintenance at that time. So turn off the maintenance and the machines stop working altogether.
China reverse engineering EVERYTHING if you think they can’t, you clearly don’t see previous history, they aren’t fast but they WILL do it eventually, if there’s enough motivation (sanctions or/and profit)
They are probably the most complex machines ever created by humanity though, and requires expertise across the whole world to build. Even if they had blueprints, it would take years just to get the manufacturing right.
Yup exactly. The machine’s serviceable parts need very specific and complicated techniques to produce. Whatever you think China can conjure together, they’re gonna be dancing for around the same amount of time it took the US, Germany and the Netherlands to produce. So about a decade. Sure they got most of the machine already if I understand correctly, but that’s like giving a broken iPad to a monkey. And don’t feel bad if you’re Chinese, it would be the same if any other group of people tried to make it.
but that’s like giving a broken iPad to a monkey. And don’t feel bad if you’re Chinese, it would be the same if any other group of people tried to make it.
And this is why they’ve been beating every hurdle the west has put up against them. Keep equating people to monkeys and wait for them to shit you on the face. Fuck the CCP, but there are probably more people than US, Germany and the Netherlands combined working specifically in chip manufacturing in China.
If you only ever think there’s just one solution to a problem and everyone else are monkeys scratching their ass. You give them more reasons to beat the odds.
Keep it up though.
Tech has gotten cheaper since China got into the race and the whining on the other side has only made it more enjoyable.
Well it doesn’t matter what I think. I’m not talking from the point of view of arrogance here.
In theory, it’s a simple thing, you get one of various fancy metals like mercury or tin to get energized, and it will emit EUV. Can’t do it cold, that wouldn’t work. You can also just do a discharge between electrodes at very high voltage or current and it will also generate EUV. But that’s not the only requirement. You also must make it from a point-like source somehow.
There are lots of ways to heat an atom but only few where that atom will emit EUV. And everything absorbs EUV strongly so can you make a laser? Nope. In a laser, the photons must remain alive enough to accumulate in the resonator and output when there are enough bounces. Each bounce out of thousands or millions will just absorb the photon. So that’s not the way. And you’ll have to think your way thru the problem like that until you manage to imagine a way that might actually work. Then you prototype it, test it, fail it, a thousand times. That takes years and billions of dollars. So my opinion is that it will take anyone a decade or more to reach just prototype phase. And it will take another 10 to have something viable. But I don’t want to argue so I’m just going to block you 😆😂.
I said that aren’t fast, but they get job done, why do you think there are so many Chinese engineers working around the globe? They get rehired for very good money by Chinese companies when they get enough expertise, Chinese companies headhunt too
511·1 year agoCorrect, its what happened with the chips. And inshallah, the US will sanction itself into isolation.
inshallah brother
People here (including the US govt apparently) acting like it’s actually going to take China a decade to figure out how to run a wafer machine bruh.
Not only do they probably already have the procedures written down and kept safe, they’ve been already been experimenting with having to run the entire supply chain on their own for years now. Hell they’re even the ones basically carrying RISC-V development right now because they barely have OEM access to x86.
And that’s all without the assumption that China hasn’t stolen some key trade secrets that would give them a head start. I highly doubt this equipment will actually go offline besides some practice runs and research application which they have likely already done without telling anyone.
Pakistan’s entire nuclear arsenal only exists because one talented due working at URENCO (also coincidentally Dutch like ASML) took a few hundred documents and his years of work experience back to his home country. If broke ass Pakistan could figure out how to make fissile material and nukes in their backyard, China sure as hell gonna figure out how to fabricate chips without any external suppliers or contractors.
