- NTSync coming in Kernel 6.11 for better Wine/Proton game performance and porting.
- Wine-Wayland last 4/5 parts left to be merged before end of 2024
- Wayland HDR/Game color protocol will be finished before end of 2024
- Nvidia 555/560 will be out for a perfect no stutter Nvidia performance
- KDE/Gnome reaching stability and usability with NO FKN ADS
- VR being usable
- More Wine development and more Games being ported
- Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
- Windows 10 coming to EOL
- Improved Linux simplicity and support
- Web-native apps (Including Msft Office and Adobe)
- .Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
What else am I missing?
What else am I missing?
The fact that 90% of people don’t give a shit about ads, privacy or their operating system in general. They want a machine to open a browser, that’s it. If Windows comes pre-installed, they’ll use Windows.
The only realistic chance we’ve got is that MS shoots itself in the foot once more by all that Recall crap and businesses drop Windows. But that’s a long shot.
Businesses that already use Windows with all of the heavily integrated business-related stuff from Microsoft (AD, Exchange, SharePoint, Teams, Outlook, etc.) won’t change that just because a feature that most likely can be disabled via GPO.
It’s true. I only use applications. The OS is a thing in the background that needs to get setup fast so I click an application and now I’m using my computer. I spend more time in my BIOS than I do the back of my OS.
Whichever OS does that best will always be the most popular.
Right! Sadly…😭
Yes, but there are things that absolutely drove be crazy in Windows. When you switch to Korean, it would default to Latin characters, and you have to switch to Korean characters. Which is fine if you always use the Korean layout and just toggle between Latin and Korean characters, like most Koreans.
But I am actually learning Korean and I speak more than one other language. When I switch to Chinese I expect it to type in Chinese. When I switch to Korean, I expect it to type in Korean.
The most bullshit thing about Windows is if the default behavior doesn’t suit you, there’s no way to change it. You’re stuck with how Windows works because it’s batteries included.
There’s more than a few reasons why Linux can’t make the jump to holding a dominant position in the desktop market.
One is simply preinstallation. For companies (and therefore the general public) to adopt the Desktop Linux, they’d need it simply to be installed for them, with a Desktop Environment like Gnome or KDE.
Secondly is updates. As much as Linux users tout the control they have over when and how updates take place, and how much Windows users will always complain about having to update their systems, until system updates on Linux are made automatic (or at least given the option to be made automatic), there cannot be a mainstream Linux Desktop. This means updates that happen very much like Windows, no administrator/sudo password, just happens on reboot regularly.
The reason for this is mainly that the average user would never update unless forced, and then when something inevitably breaks, they are left, as always, frustrated that their computer just didn’t work as expected forever without any upkeep, understanding, or updates.
Lastly is support. And this is multifaceted. By support I mean software support by companies like Adobe. I also mean a much farther reaching swath of random devices that literally plug and play like on Windows.
As an aside, I’ll also say that since there is a move towards Wayland, there also needs to be a No Configuration Necessary way of running Nvidia on Wayland. This is less a Linux issue, and more a Nvidia one, but until pretty much any and all hardware works on Linux the way it just works on Windows, this sadly affects Linux Desktop adoption as more and more of the Linux Desktop ecosystem moves towards forcing Wayland adoption.
Finally I’ll say that the Microsoft corporation at large obviously relies mainly on Corporate Adoption of its products and services, and that the Windows Desktop is simply one part of that greater whole. Their approach to competing with Apple and their walled garden ecosystem has been to slowly but surely create their own, its just so much larger you forget there are walls. They have done this by absorbing more and more of the tech ecosystem either by acquisition, invention, or otherwise. Examples ot this include Bing and All Search Engines that Use it, the pushing of TypeScript into JavaScript Development, the predominance and proliferation of VSStudio/VSCode in modern software development, their heavy involvement with OpenAI and aggressive pushing of AI products/services, their acquisition of Github and subsequent further expansion of influence over software development and distribution, and much much more.
Despite the privacy invasion, enshittefication of the user experience, and their various other ways they have mistreated their users specifically via the direction they’ve taken Windows, Microsoft has established itself as THE Desktop, as THE Workstation, and as THE company that comes to mind when the average person mentions “computer”, and the majority of people associate computer related productivity and play with Windows.
For all the advances made to Desktop Linux, especially in recent years, it is unlikely that Linux Desktop adoption will ever proliferate to the kinds of mainstream adoption that its accolades desire. Until Linux (or at least a Linux distribution) can demonstrate what I’ve mentioned above (preinstallation, automatic/automated updates, and wide spread software/hardware support from various 3rd party vendors) along with demonstrating a work flow/user experience that is somehow both familiar to the user and also better than the experience on Windows, then the day of the Linux Desktop will never come.
This aforementioned demonstration, btw, would have to become obscenely apparent to the average every day computer user who just wants to get their work done, play a Video Game, and watch Netflix, all without having to ever even know what a terminal emulator is.
I love Linux, and I think the Linux Desktop is not only a superior user experience, but is just better in general than Windows. But the average user I’ve encountered generally hates their Computer if it doesn’t work as expected 110% of the time. Linux, and honestly computers, will never be able to do that, but the closer the Desktop (and user facing GUIs more broadly) get to creating that illusion of “it all just works all the time”, the more adoption you’ll see.
the pushing of TypeScript into JavaScript Development,
TIL that Typescript was developed by MS. It’s “free and open-source” though, i’d say the hability for them to cripple it are minimal?
GitHub was a blow though and it’s why i recommend CodeBerg at every chance i get. They’re on mastodon: @Codeberg@Codeberg@social.anoxinon.de
I’d say Ubuntu is probably the distro closer to being the “desktop linux”, Canonical’s been trying to be like MS for years.
Yeah, I generally agree with all sentiments. TS is handy at times, but working with poorly written .d.ts types from 3rd party libs is Hell.
The MS acquisition of Github is sad imho. Using alternatives is nice. I’ll eventually get around to self hosting a Gitea or cgit instance.
Ubuntu, Mint, and PopOS are probably the closest to a mainstream Linux Desktop from what I’ve seen, and perhaps one day one of those really will take the mantle and push the Linux Desktop forward into the mainstream, but I just don’t see it. I do hope I’m wrong though.
This aforementioned demonstration, btw, would have to become obscenely apparent to the average every day computer user who just wants to get their work done, play a Video Game, and watch Netflix, all without having to ever even know what a terminal emulator is.
That sums it all up. The average user wants a PC that just works. Terminal is a big no for the average user, and while we dont get gui ways of doing everything an average user does, it will be a big barrier. Even calamares needs to be waaaaay simpler (like a “i have no idea what im doing, configure it all for me” option).
Pop has automatic updates now.
nice doctorate thesis bro
I think we should be thankful for having users contribute long-form thought-out content like this, instead of ridiculing them.
nice tweet of support sis
I honestly don’t care about dethroning windows or anything related to it. All that matters to me is that my Linux system works the way I need it to…
You say that because you don’t realize the benefits:
- Better support for Linux with any new PC hardware on day 1. This includes things like USB devices, monitors, KVMs, UPS, everything.
- Better support for all commercial software in general. More software will become available and it’ll be higher quality.
- Vendors will be forced to test all their stuff on Linux which means it’ll all become more reliable and less glitchy.
- There will be more diversity in software and distros which means widespread attacks (aka hacking, worms, viruses, etc) will have less success and smaller impacts.
- The more Linux users there are the more Linux developers will result. It’s also much easier to start learning how to code on a Linux desktop than it is in Windows.
- Better security for the entire world. Linux has a vastly superior security architecture than Windows and a vastly superior track record. The more Linux users there are, the harder it will be for malicious entities to break into their PCs which translates into a more secure world.
- It’s much easier (for experienced users) to troubleshoot and fix problems in Linux than in Windows. This will lead to support teams everywhere getting frustrated whenever they have to deal with Windows users (this is already the case for many software vendors, haha). Therefore, it makes support people happy and easy going. Who doesn’t want to reach a happy, helpful person for technical support instead of the usual defiant/adversarial support tech? 😁
- The worst sorts of hardware vendors won’t be able to get away with their usual bullshit. For example, if there were enough Linux users HP wouldn’t be offering extremely invasive 2GB printer “drivers” because their Windows customers would know enough Linux users that they’d be rightfully pissed and not depressively submissive like they are now.
- When you do have a problem it will be easier to find a solution because the likelihood that someone else already had it and posted a solution will be higher (though admittedly this factor doesn’t seem to do much for Windows currently because of how obtuse and obfuscated everything is in that OS).
There’s actually a lot more reasons but that’s probably enough for now 😁
Right now it’s sort of up to Nvidia and Wayland. Desktop sound is in good shape, desktop color (profiles and matching) and fonts are not there yet. Ray tracing and hdr have proven how much of a second class citizen desktop Linux is, so right now the most important factor is the SteamDeck for pushing the envelope to implement new tech. Chinese and German goverments moving to Linux helps but to be honet, I think that the “office and browser” use case is pretty well covered.
Possibly. But it’s also pretty common in many instances of technology adoption that as more users come, the quality gets worse, and while open source doesn’t have to worry about a shareholder-driven profit motive driving it, it’s still easy to wind up with a muddled focus. I wouldn’t expect that Linux and all of the associated software projects that make the functional desktop are going to be an exception overall. If you’re an open source developer working on a project now, basically any user is some form of power user, and it’s easier to find consensus of what to prioritize on a project not only because Linux users tend to be better about understanding how their software works and are actually helpful in further development, they’re also likely to direct development towards features that make software more open, compatible, and useful.
Now fast forward to a future where Linux is the majority desktop OS, those power users are maybe 5% of the software’s user base, and every major project’s forum is inundated with thousands of users screaming about how hard the software is to use and, when bug reports and feature requests are actually coherent, they mostly boil down to demands for simpler, easier to understand UIs. I can easily imagine the noise alone could lead to an exodus of frustrated developers.
Some things are better for NOT trying to be the answer for everyone.
Dethrones? No. Not in the sense it will overtake Windows in numbers.
Grows its gamer ‘market share’? Absolutely.
You know what gets ppl to use Linux? 100% Software compatibility out of the box and OEM who preinstall Linux distros.
Barely anyone outside the bubble oft techies and enthusiasts cares. You have to BRING it to the users. For most oft them comfort is king after all.
Anybody seriously believing this has a misunderstanding of how little people care about what OS they use and how much they care that it works the way they expect.
Most people don’t. But if they keep chipping away their customers, Linux might reach a threshold where it’s more convenient to switch.
Ah yes, this year is definitely the year of the Linux desktop. For real this time!
What else am I missing?
Global Linux usage stats vs global Windows usage stats for PC Desktops.
Linux is roughly at 3.88% market share. You don’t think we can bump Linux adoption to 99.9% in the next six months?
We just have to keep writing these “Year of the Linux” posts every year.
You mean 50.1% !
It is a good list ( from an “alternative to Windows” point of view ). In particular, you make a good case for the gaming side of things.
Unfortunately, even if that is all Linux needs, the hordes take time to arrive. The big impact of changes this year will be seen in the migration numbers 3 years from now. The biggest opportunity is probably the Windows 10 EOL and that is not until the end of next year. By then, many gamers will have Windows 11 capable hardware.
I do think that gamers and devs are the two groups likely to lead the charge on the next wave of Linux adoption. .NET dev in particular already has a lot of momentum on Linux with the transition from desktop to cloud and the primacy of Linux in container based workflows. Things are not quite there yet for .NET mobile dev on Linux. I bet most .NET devs that have left Windows are using Macs these days though. That said, that means they are already using tooling quite easily migrated to Linux including bath Rider and VS Code as you say. In the cloud, .NET must be “deployed” more to Linux than to Windows by now.
That last point is the most important I think. Windows is no longer the most important platform for Microsoft—Azure is. Microsoft is quite happy to let you use Linux on Azure. In fact, Azure pipelines and .NET itself are faster on Linux at this point. It is still “developers, developers, developers” for Microsoft but it is now more cloud than desktop. That changes the role of Windows at Microsoft.
I think it is perhaps less what we think about Windows and more about what Microsoft thinks about Windows that matters.
The other crown jewel is Office. Office 365 is a subscription. It is increasingly a “cloud” offering as well. Soon, they will not care about Windows as a delivery vehicle for Office either.
As Windows starts to matter less strategically, the question will increasingly be how to monetize the Windows user base more heavily. That is more ads, more data mining, more AI, and an increasingly crap experience. More and more, Windows Product Managers will be rewarded for their short-term gains and incremental revenue. Stewardship of the platform will move further and further into the background.
That is how Linux will win.
It won’t be this year though.
I switched from Windows to Linux full time around Feb 2024.
I think Linux is ready for desktop use.
I switched in 2021 and I thought the same then.
I’m a Mac guy and I have a PC for gaming. I just installed Mint on my PC and it has been working great for gaming. I probably won’t need Windows ever again.
Most games work on Linux or with Steam Proton.
But some games still don’t or has kernel level anti-cheat systems.
I would just ignore those games.
I stopped using Windows in the XP era. Later on I started working in a job that required me to have a Win8 laptop. 2 years later I reverted back to Linux once I stopped working there and had Win8/10 as a game OS. But my main “serious” usage was on Linux.
You forgot “Recall”.
I wanted to make a wordplay here, but I couldn’t find one.
Anyway, a lot of people are worried about the OS remembering everything you are doing like it’s taking screenshots all the time.
For my part, that would be a big no-no.
I think it’s going to take a Microsoft catastrophe, something that disables machines for at least a few days. I’m thinking maybe a buggy windows update.
Or a forced update to windows 11 on machine that doesn’t support it. That would break the windows install for good. Either they will find a way to install windows again or take it to somebody who installs windows on it again. Maybe maybe they’ll find out about Linux.
So what happened with Bing a few hours ago but for end-users…
This isn’t the first time Microsoft has pushed telemetry and malware in its OS. But I think they have finally crossed the line with CoPilot. What they want to do with it is so incredibly obvious and intrusive that most people just won’t stand for it.
You’re vastly overestimating how much the average consumer cares about these things
Because here are many people who did a switch to linux. How did you handle using a cad software like solidworks or fusion360 after switching to linux?
Like. I can’t even rub Wayland on my 4090. Its a black screen. This happens with manjaro kde. With mint I can at least see my (frozen, unresponsive, unusable) desktop.
This all sounds cool and stuff but I kind of wish people would, like, shut the fuck up about Wayland? My understanding is that NY experience.is far from unique. People that own PCs have nvidia cards. Unless “the year of the Linux desktop” involves everyone vaporating anmd cards that magically have cuda cores somehow out of their asses then nothing about Wayland really matters to us.
You can “get an and” card to me all you want, but here’s the thing: I don’t fucking want one. I use my cuda cores. Its why I spent as much as I did on a 4090.
I guess 555 is supposed to make Wayland work with nvidia?
I mean, look. Using an nvidia card with Linux, and getting the requisite drivers working, can be am experience akin to having your has deferens ripped out by an aging badger. I get it. But until I can nvidia while I Wayland I just don’t care. And I’m not alone.
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