AI’s business model is starting to look less like a revolution and more like a $6 trillion IOU. Bain says existing AI services may cover just $1.8 trillion by 2031, leaving a $4.2 trillion hole to justify the data center frenzy. Apparently the killer app is still: »please invent enough revenue before the depreciation schedule catches us!!!«
The killer app is “you can’t build your own cloud because we’re hoarding all the compute”
In order to make $6 trillion by 2031, every human being on earth would have to spend at least $150 per year on average.
Maybe that doesn’t sound like a lot if you’re already paying a $100 a month for a Claude max subscription or whatever, but consider that the vast majority of people don’t pay for any AI at all, and have no interest in ever paying for it.
Also, $150 is a best-case scenario where revenue is 100% profit. In actual reality, the profit margins are much, much lower, and may not even exist at all!
every human being on earth would have to spend at least $150 per year on average.
6b humans would need to spend $1000/year on average. On top of phone/computer + internet/data services. Global average spending on food/year is $1500.
We’re up to 8.3 billion people now, fam.
6 trillion / 8.3 billion = ~750
And that number has to be spread over 5 years since the target date to raise the 6 trillion is 2031.
750 / 5 = 150
But, like I said, that’s still just a conservative estimate that doesn’t account for the fact that the AI firms have astronomical operating costs to cover.
The$6T number is per year revenue target in 2031. 6B is a round number, but facebook has 3b monthly active users, and google ai overview has 2.5b monthly active users. baidu (no google overlap) has 644m monthly active users. So at 3b internet connected users addressable or so, its $2000/user. MAUs double count work/personal/multiple/bot accounts.
Also, there’s about 1b desk/knowledge workers in the world. = $6000/job/year
Jesus… I totally misread the article. I thought it was 6 trillion total, not 6 trillion yearly revenue. That’s so, so much worse.
Innovation?
That’s just code for “Find a way to fuck consumers out of their money without actually giving them anything.”
Time to call the great innovator, Donald trump.
“What the industry needs is a wave of innovation”
Narrator: They didn’t innovate
you know where innovation comes from?
independent research.
you know what the oligopolies hate?
independent research.
pick one. you can’t have it both ways.
It’s fine. All of this is borrowed money and commitments. The reason prices on RAM and GPUs are through the roof is because all of the future capacity has been spoken for. But when the datacenters all that silicon is supposed go into don’t arrive, all of that booked demand evaporates. I think we’ll see a very nice market correction. Big tech will be fine, but stock prices will tank. The US AI labs will continue to exist, but the chinese labs will gut their competitive advantage. US put all their eggs into this stupid AI basket and China will be happy to give away the tech to spit in the US’s soup.
I believe this is report all those articles are referring to https://www.bain.com/insights/new-innovation-is-required-to-fund-ais-6-trillion-buildout-technology-report-2026/A message to the industry:
Fuck yourselves, you traitorous, awful, slimy, scummy, pee brained, flee bitten, rabid, child raping, terrorist, ego driven, scumbag, sacks of monkey shit. Holy shit; hallelujah
I take a market crash of apocalyptic proportions over a cloud dystopia any day.
You’re in luck because you’re going to have both!
the financial logic behind the data center buildout simply doesn’t hold up.
need to change assumptions that it requires a decent end ROI, or good economic proposition, when analyzing logic.
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Greater fool theory. Hype hype hype to cash out at IPO or buyout. Circular financing is your friend. Outright fraud of 5x more expensive data centers in space that are only useful for slow inference.
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There’s nothing else for the US to spend on, and aspirationally seek economic competitiveness with China. A race to end US employment for higher oligarch profits, as a bribe to narcissist in chief, becomes somehow MAGA.
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Skynet government surveillance, fascism, and geopolitical dominance. Government will buy all of the tokens or China wins. US fascism/oppression will increase to protect Israel first establishment power, or China wins. There can be no guardrails on US government, or AI bond villain, use of models, or China wins. Zero regulatory discussion exists on preventing the pursuit of Skynet, and “whoever wins AI, wins” is only/purely a Skynet goal, and it is policy unanimity. https://naturalfinance.blogspot.com/2026/09/a-global-prosperity-manifesto.html
An irony in 2nd/3rd point is that industry is fully aware that about 90% of tokens in SEA area datacenters are consumed in China, and it is one of biggest areas of new datacenter developments. So some chain of control in the profit/revenue flow from token sales to China is a near term priority over skynet dominance over China.
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