Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/10013170
The war in Ukraine is “existential for our Europe and for France”, Mr Macron said in the interview on France 2 and TF1.
“Do you think that the Poles, the Lithuanians, the Estonians, the Romanians and the Bulgarians could remain at peace for a second [in the event of a Russian victory in Ukraine]?” he asked. “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility would be reduced to zero.”
We need to start defining what a win and what a loss is. I feel that this could vary on some parts
It’s very simple. Make the occupiers fuck off behind Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders.
Honestly it feels like the only reasonable outcome is a division like Korea, and focus on modernising and liberalising West Ukraine.
So… west Ukraine up til Moscow and east Ukraine for the rest?
Edit: apparently we need an /s
That isn’t realistic, and Russia has nuclear weapons too.
The best bet is that the regime will be toppled in Russia with time, just like the USSR was.
It’s better to lead by example with free institutions and free markets - the people of Russia will want freedom too.
That isn’t realistic, and Russia has nuclear weapons too.
And so ? Should we let them to do whatever they want just because “we have nukes” ? I
No, Biden should send the US army as he has the ability to do so.
But he is too weak to stand up to Putin, especially in an election year, so compromise is necessary.
No, Biden should send the US army as he has the ability to do so.
US does not care about Ukraine, they only antogonize Russia. Then yeah, given what we have seen on the battlefield, if NATO will go boot on the ground Russia probably will have some serious problem (not that now they have not).
But he is too weak to stand up to Putin, especially in an election year, so compromise is necessary.
Maybe from a US point of view, but here we are discussing Europe.
It is about time that Europe (and EU) begin to be what we say we are.I think that here Macron is damn right. Russia must not win this war because any concession we do to Russia now will be seen as “we can do whatever we want because in the end they fold”.
Putin tried to take Ukraine exactly because EU and US did nothing when he took Crimea (if not talking).And this whatever the US say.
The US has nuclear weapons. Europe has nuclear weapons.
Bullshit about “free institutions and free market”. That was the thought after the Soviet Union collapsed. And what do we have now? The exact opposite of what Russia “was supposed to be through open markets”.
Yeah, and they would use them if they had foreign armies pushing into their territory.
But no efforts were made to really democratise and modernise Russia - they let oligarchs rise up from criminal gangs, etc., it’d have been better to have a more controlled process like Glasnost.
I think there were some efforts, some may even worked. There were also efforts from the inside, but in the end those efforts were not enough, it seems
Yeah because Russia was not capitulated. They were a disfunctional, but sovereign country. You cannot dictate anything on them. You can lead by example or make suggestions, but ultimately it’s the will of the people that matters. In that regard the situation is rather similar to Germany post WW1. A people not yet ready for democracy and no one there to force them to. In Germany’s case it took the entire to be bombed to the ground, millions dead and being occupied by 4 not so emphatic countries.
Yeah, and they would use them if they had foreign armies pushing into their territory.
I think that here the problem is not to invade Russia, but that Russia need to left Ukraine.
With Ukrainian family in kharkiv, Odessa, and kiev this is not a reasonable outcome in the slightest.
Yeah, that’s what losing feels like.
I’m guessing you’re going to resort to terrorism if Russia conquers Ukraine? Could be interesting.
And fortunately none of those cities are occupied yet.
They’re still being killed there. Sure not occupied yet, but you said it’s the one reasonable thing to do.
And peace would put an end to that.
I don’t get the idea of doggedly pursuing liberation of the Crimea, etc. when it isn’t realistic and people are losing their lives.
It’s better to have an okay-ish peace now and reorganise the country than to face total collapse if shortages continue.
Perfection is the enemy of the good.
Dude I’m talking about ceceding kharkiv and Odessa to Russia which is what you are saying is a reasonable solution
They could hold the current borders for peace. That is the most likely outcome.
Have you ever considered that Ukraine is just an investment for the West? They’d rather have Ukrainians dying than their own soldiers. They don’t actually think Ukraine can win, only weaken Russia.
This is what all Western military strategists are saying.
Credibility is not the only thing Europe is bound to lose if Russia is victorious.
Came here to say this. Think Russia will stop because they got the thing they wanted? Nah. They’re gonna get high on the win and world war 3 will kill us all.
We should have admitted Ukraine into NATO a long time ago.
I’m still upset that Ukraine didn’t mine their border with Russia out of fears of ‘escalation.’
The world really cucked Ukrainians at every step.
The whole ‘border’ with Crimea should have been a deathtrap. I think it came out the Ukrainian commanders there were in cahoots.
That unfortunately wouldn’t surprise me.
I honestly never considered how much Ukrainian corruption was the direct result of Russia, but now it all makes sense.
Citing the same interview, the U.S. magazine Newsweek published an article with Macron saying that Ukraine must reclaim Crimea to achieve real peace
Are there elections coming in France?
We are hearing big words from Macron over and over in the last few weeks to support Ukraine - yet France is far behind when in comes to supporting Ukraine financially or with military equipment. And please don’t bring that Reddit meme ‘France is doing everything secretly and nobody knows about it’. Democratic financing in billions of Euros is public and not a high toilet paper bill like in Hollywood movies from the 80s. There is of course a lot of proportionate support by France within the EU-assistance, as France is a big economy and paying into the EU budget. It’s a similar situation with Italy, as they are another big economy within the EU. Both EU ‘power houses’ are far behind when it comes to direct support for Ukraine.
Macron has been telling us just last week, that the local EU arms industry needs more orders to enable low and competitive prices. He also told us support for Ukraine should only receive subsidies for EU-made products. And last week we saw statistics that the arm industry/exports from the USA and France profited the most from the Russian invasion in Ukraine, as everyone is getting their military up to date and ordering a lot. So everything plays in his hands and France is reaping in big profits and getting support for its huge arms industry. Yet, the country is far behind in supporting Ukraine and Macron keeps calling other countries to support Ukraine more - or here that ‘Europe will lose all credibility’.
What is going on here? Elections?
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NATO without the US can easily easily easily take on Russia. Russia couldn’t even invade one of the poorest countries in Europe. UK and France have nuclear weapons. And haven’t we already seen what preemptive wars end up as? (And that was when they had no nukes.) Defensive wars suck in a lot of ways, but that’s what we’re left with.
We need to destroy Russias ability to threaten the EU and remove Putin and any other similar leader from power in Russia. That should be the goal of the EU and not to go into a full scale war with Russia. Seriously Putin is not winning that war. The Russian civilian economy is shrinking fast, Russias war reserves are depleting, oil income is falling, soldiers are being lost on a massive scale with a demogrophics, which does not allow for that, and Russias weapons reserves from Soviet times are falling. Russia has two or three years of full scale war in it. The only thing we need to do is to keep Ukraine in the fight, while destroying as much of Russia as possible.
Not a big loss. Still much better than the rebel north American colonies.
How can ukraine even win? Like there is no venue left other than NATO troops… oh…
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As if Europe or the „Western“ world in general would still have any credibility with the Gaza genocide.
I truly feel sorry for Ukrainians as the support for the resistance was never about actual solidarity or values.
@bolzolol
As if Europe or the „Western“ world in general would still have any credibility with the Gaza genocide.
I truly feel sorry for Ukrainians as the support for the resistance was never about actual solidarity or values.
Aren’t you getting tired of this?
Ah yeah the typical whataboutism accusation. Whataboutism is certainly a problem when trolls try to derail debates.
In this case though the statement that Europe would lose all credibility if Ukraine loses relies on the premise that there’s any credibility left to begin with. I’m challenging that premise.
It’s blatantly obvious that the support for Ukraine was always just about geopolitics, and never about moral or values. Now, the geopolitical interest seems to have shifted, hence no more support for Ukraine. See e.g. Scholz not even giving any reasons for denying support, except that he says so.
I think all of this is terrible and I want Ukraine to be supported, but our dear Western leaders are morally bankrupt so I’m afraid it may not happen.
I have a feeling that it’s mainly about power. Russia having more power will be catastrophic to the world
It’s not like the West is any more humane, we’re just committing all the atrocities far away from ourselves. It’s objectively better for almost anyone to live in a Western country than in the places we oppress. And I wouldn’t want to live in Russia or China either.
I totally agree that Russia shouldn’t have power. But how much does the Western power help middle easterners? Or how much did it help in Korea, Vietnam, …
So it’s fighting Russia’s power isn’t based on a consistent moral framework. It’s just done because our own quality of life is better if Russia has less power.
They’re arabs! Who cares
We are talking about white people here.
Sorry, I got carried away for a second. I think there were some white doctors there or something at some point so that confused me
Can somebody explain how not admitting Ukraine to NATO and ceding Crimea and the Donbas means “the end of Europe”? The alternative seems to be endless bloodshed and the complete destruction of the country.
Appeasement won’t stop it. Is that what you’re advocating?
No it won’t.
Oh, less than zero? That’s fair.
It feels like the cited statement actually lacks causality. If Ukraine falls, nobody will remain at peace, that’s true. But how does that change the credibility of Europe except for showing that maybe help was not large enough (even that might be a wrong assumption) is what I fail to see.
If anything, the credibility of Europe could be questioned over the efficiency of sanctions and over how those sanctions actually affect Putin’s war
how does that change the credibility of Europe except for showing that maybe help was not large enough
I think that’s exactly it tbh. The amount of decent hardware delivered hasn’t been even nearly enough and the ramp up of artillery production has been shamefully slow. Why is Ukraine being heavily outgunned with the collective might of the West behind it?
We should have given Ukraine everything they needed on day one. It’s so painfully obvious that if they lose we’re all going to war. All of us.
The appeasement attempted by not giving the really good kit and honestly fuck all air defence (the US has something like 1100 patriot systems) was utter folly.
“Oh, we’d better not escalate”. FUCK. THAT. He tried hard to take Kyiv and kill Zelensky and only absolutely laughable logistics prevented it. That goal is still there.
Putin’s “logic” for Ukraine being part of Russia already applies to the Baltics. If Ukraine falls, he’ll bide his time, rebuild with their new war economy then trundle into all 3 of them via Kaliningrad, Northwest Russia and Belarus all while claiming that if anyone sets foot in Kaliningrad he’ll press the red button causing untold pearl clutching in the West. Unless NATO has significantly built up their presence in the Baltics, they will fall and he’ll lob in a load of defensive positions before you have time to take a piss then be off down south towards what he probably sees as “softer” targets in Moldova, Slovakia etc.
We should have given Ukraine everything they needed on day one
In that case the credibility of Europe is long gone because nothing will change the history of how poor the response was. Well, except for writing history books about how Ukraine only prevailed because of Europe’s immediate and plentiful help, but those will take some time to overwrite what people actually saw
Yeah, I fully agree. The dithering response has already done untold damage to future credibility.
This is where Macron is wrong, Europe and the West already lost all credibility when they chose to be complicit in the genocide in Gaza.
Putin needs to die.
