I do think the systems of government and balances of power are different than the US, and Trump hasn’t had the same amount of time to solidify a personal regime centered on himself (and hopefully never will). He also hasn’t been waging a war that doesn’t exist for quite as long, and has a better track record with “special operations”.
If Trump, without changing the current system, sent the US down a road to a similar kind of trouble, the “democratic” mechanisms (or rather, the checks and balances that have let him run unchecked so far) would presumably intervene on behalf of the donor class before it got to the point Russia is at now. Either they’d get him to back off, or their puppets would suddenly find dirt and the political will to impeach, charge and remove him from office.
My suspicion (and I may well be wrong) is that Putin has dug his control so deep that nobody dares to defy him while his image holds, because everyone would be worried about becoming an example. There’s a certain psychology to power, where appearing powerful becomes self-fulfilling: People get the impression that others obey the leader, so they don’t dare to be the odd one out, their obedience further adding to the image of power.
If the tensions his tyranny has caused rise and that impression of him being in control starts cracking, e.g. because he has to make concessions in negotiations or runs noticeably low on resources to enforce his will, that might change. The concern here isn’t so much the common people as the other political players he’s kept down so far. I don’t know their motives and concerns, but he wouldn’t be the first ruler toppled by former cronies sensing weakness.
But maybe you’re right and he’ll somehow manage to save face. I don’t really care about being right here. I just hope for peace, sooner rather than later, for the sake of all humans involved.
This bloodshed should never have started in the first place, let alone gone on this long, and it’s a waste of lives, resources and time that could have been spent on better pursuits than the ambitions of a violent megalomaniac.
I absolutely get what you’re saying and there’s a lot of truth in it, imo.
However, whenever I stumble across the sentiment that Putin ‘cannot afford to look weak’ in order to survive, I can’t help but wonder how on earth he’s still president:
He led his country into a ‘3-day adventure’ that’s been ongoing for more than four years now - an end not at all in sight, on Crimea they have to pay 2,90€ per litre for fuel, if there’s some at all that is, while across the entire country, they wait in endless queues towards petrol stations. He wasted more than a million husbands, fathers, sons, friends of his people, leaving a gaping hole in an already troubled demographic development, the economy is only kept alive by defence spending, whereas the usual powerhouse of the company, the fossil-based energy sector is in shambles and Russia needs to import (!) fuel.
Summarising: he already is weak, unsuccessful and frail. If he really were that threatened by that, he’d been long gone. So I don’t buy it. He can end it whenever he pleases.
You may have a point.
I do think the systems of government and balances of power are different than the US, and Trump hasn’t had the same amount of time to solidify a personal regime centered on himself (and hopefully never will). He also hasn’t been waging a war that doesn’t exist for quite as long, and has a better track record with “special operations”.
If Trump, without changing the current system, sent the US down a road to a similar kind of trouble, the “democratic” mechanisms (or rather, the checks and balances that have let him run unchecked so far) would presumably intervene on behalf of the donor class before it got to the point Russia is at now. Either they’d get him to back off, or their puppets would suddenly find dirt and the political will to impeach, charge and remove him from office.
My suspicion (and I may well be wrong) is that Putin has dug his control so deep that nobody dares to defy him while his image holds, because everyone would be worried about becoming an example. There’s a certain psychology to power, where appearing powerful becomes self-fulfilling: People get the impression that others obey the leader, so they don’t dare to be the odd one out, their obedience further adding to the image of power.
If the tensions his tyranny has caused rise and that impression of him being in control starts cracking, e.g. because he has to make concessions in negotiations or runs noticeably low on resources to enforce his will, that might change. The concern here isn’t so much the common people as the other political players he’s kept down so far. I don’t know their motives and concerns, but he wouldn’t be the first ruler toppled by former cronies sensing weakness.
But maybe you’re right and he’ll somehow manage to save face. I don’t really care about being right here. I just hope for peace, sooner rather than later, for the sake of all humans involved.
This bloodshed should never have started in the first place, let alone gone on this long, and it’s a waste of lives, resources and time that could have been spent on better pursuits than the ambitions of a violent megalomaniac.
I absolutely get what you’re saying and there’s a lot of truth in it, imo.
However, whenever I stumble across the sentiment that Putin ‘cannot afford to look weak’ in order to survive, I can’t help but wonder how on earth he’s still president:
He led his country into a ‘3-day adventure’ that’s been ongoing for more than four years now - an end not at all in sight, on Crimea they have to pay 2,90€ per litre for fuel, if there’s some at all that is, while across the entire country, they wait in endless queues towards petrol stations. He wasted more than a million husbands, fathers, sons, friends of his people, leaving a gaping hole in an already troubled demographic development, the economy is only kept alive by defence spending, whereas the usual powerhouse of the company, the fossil-based energy sector is in shambles and Russia needs to import (!) fuel.
Summarising: he already is weak, unsuccessful and frail. If he really were that threatened by that, he’d been long gone. So I don’t buy it. He can end it whenever he pleases.