The Atlantic current system, or more formally the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is more likely to weaken than previously thought. That's the conclusion of a new study published in the journal Science Advances, which used more refined modeling techniques to get a clearer picture of the future. If these new projections are correct, the consequences could be severe, particularly for Europe and Africa.
The problem is the AMOC is highly variable. They used the original models as well for comparison. One of the things this model does that’s new is model the salinity variability better.
If they’re wrong, that’s probably a good thing, unless they’re wrong in that it will be worse than predicted.
The issue is climate predictions have been very pessimistic already, and we are blowing past them already.
It’s kind of like, we were right, but it’s happening earlier than expected. Honestly, that’s not a good feeling.
My wife does research on resilience, and one of the things they have to do is use a large number of climate models to make sure they aren’t underestimating effects.
Sadly, we don’t know what we don’t know.