Bubble inflators say there’s no bubble, ask for more pumps for no reason.
Tulip vendors saying mania is fake news!
Current AI is a dead end, it’s less intelligent than a fly brain, which by the way can solve mazes with just 160,000 neurons, remember where the food is after hours of discovering such, is self replicating, and is a generic intelegect.
Trust me bro. Just one more AI, I swear.
I haven’t read the article. I’m not going to read the article because I, quite frankly, don’t care about these people and I hope they all fucking crash and burn. But I’m going to take a guess and say that their attitude is something on the order of “We’re making tons of money how can they possibly be the bubble?”
In my opinion thus far, AI is good for the consumer, not the enterprise. It has no new information, which is what makes companies grow. I know people don’t think the want it, but in the end, it will be that Microsoft, Apple, and Max n don’t have a reason for it right now. While Google does. (Bing is Microsoft so yes). People are idiots and can learn from others. New ideas can’t come from language models, thus useless to companies looking to engineer new ideas. But if you want to re-iterate BS people could not find, it helps. It will bleed anyone providing the information dry, so that will dry off, but it puts every dollar into the search engines povket for advertising, and steals from anyone chasing “the American Dream”.
The bubble thing is more the financial aspect. None of these AI companies are profitable and they also don’t have a clear path to profit. For some time the business plan of Open AI was literally develop advanced AI and then let the AI figure out how to make money. Yet, these companies attract huge amounts of investment and are responsible for basically all of the economic growth in the US.
Nobody thinks there are no uses at all for LLMs or image generation etc. or that people in general hate all AI. It’s a bubble because a lot of money is being invested in something that nobody managed to make profitable yet, so if the investment stops, then these companies will all implode.
There is also the fact that AI is being shoved into a lot of places where it really is quite useless. Search engines are the most glaring example of this. LLMs aren’t suited for integration into a search engine, and yet every search engine in existence has had one mashed into it and advertised as the greatest thing since sliced bread. And they all universally suck at it.
Is davos a gathering of villains hell-bent on making the world a worse place?
This is clearly a bubble.
I don’t care if AI is useful, it’s not this useful. And it sure as shit isn’t going to see the returns they expect.
I run an internal multi-user AI app. It plugs into almost everyone’s workflows to make things easier (fetches documents, pulls data, contextualizes stuff). It costs $1 per day per user in token costs .
You need a trillion people using these apps for the current valuations to make sense.
My guess is they are using the Netflix playbook all over again.
Get you hooked to the extreme convenience, much like a drug addict, and then pump up the price or flood every prompt with ads.
That’s my best case.
Worse case is, that alongside the rising adoption, they will start surreptitiously but effectively modifying general knowledge, thought and behaviour in ways the
worstbest Marketer would blush about.Get you hooked to the extreme convenience, much like a drug addict, and then pump up the price or flood every prompt with ads.
There is a big difference between “normal” SaaS and LLM.
In a normal SaaS you get a lot of benefit of being at scale. Going from 1000 to 10000 users is not that much harder than going from 10000 to 1000000. Once you have your scaling set up you can just add more servers and/or data centers. But most importantly, the cost per user goes waaay down.
With AI it just doesn’t scale at all, the 500000th user will most likely cost as much as the 5th. So doing a netflix/spotify/etc, I don’t think is going to work unless they can somehow make it a lot cheaper per user. OpenAI fails to turn a profit even on their most expensive tiers.
Edit: to clarify, obviously you get some small benefits from being at scale. Better negotiations and already having server racks, etc. But those same benefits a traditionsl SaaS gets as well, and so much more that LLM doesn’t, because the cost per user doesn’t drop.
Is this correct? I was under the impresion that the most expensive part of an llm is the training, and once that’s done the cost of running a prompt is negligible.
I get your point that this last part doesn’t scale well, but the far larger cost of training must get very diluted if they distribute it across a large user base.
I agree, scaling users isn’t the issue, what is is the neverending chase for the mirage that is AGI. They’ll throw every processing cycle they can muster at that fever dream, that’s the financial black hole.
Yes, but don’t underestimate the power of centralisation.
6 months ago you could set up a server for running a decent local llm for under 800.
By increasing the demands and pushing the price of hardware up, they are efectibly gate keeping access to llms.
I think the plan is that we will need to rely on this companies for compute power and llms services, and then they can do all sorts of nefarious things.
If it’s this useful, we’re (and them) fucked too because the economy would collapse under falling aggregate demand due to falling wages and layoffs. The “people will find new jobs” won’t save us from a shift this large without a depression. And all sorts of things happen during depressions.
I’m struggling to find a scenario in which we are not already fucked. I say we “go for broke” and move on.
Pop this thing.
I don’t care if AI is useful, it’s not this useful. And it sure as shit isn’t going to see the returns they expect.
And how. Making coders slightly more efficient really just isn’t worth this much. There’s also going to be hell to pay when software created by all of the vibe-coding is found to be full of security holes.
They want to pitch this as unemployment causing efficiency gains, but this shit clearly can’t do anyone’s job that wasn’t already automatable through regular software.
No shit. Their stocks would crater if they did tell the truth.
There is no war in Ba Sing Se
Its not a bubble. A bubble is when you sink billions into something with no payoff. We’ve sunk trillions. Any people aren’t just uninterested, a substantial amount are actively opposed to it. Its not the same thing at all.
Maybe you’d call that a black hole instead of bubble
So…
It’s not a bubble because…
“This is the largest infrastructure build-out in human history,” Huang said of active and promised data center projects. "And so the AI bubble is, comes about because the investments are large. And the investments are large, because we have to build the infrastructure necessary for all of the layers of AI above it."
It’s something we’re sinking money into soley because we’ve already been sinking money into it, and we don’t want anyone else to get ahead of us even though literally no one has found a way to monetize it enough to make back prior investments let alone new investments…
Like, he knows that’s literally the definition of an economic bubble, right?
Is he just trying to grift dumb rich investors, or does he legitimately not understand his company could go bankrupt literally at any moment if the investor class ever comes back to reality?
Don’t get me wrong, I totally agree These motherfuckers would scorch our planet for profit but this… feels different.
Is not a secret a lot of the most influential Billionaires are transhumanists (Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, etc).
But hey, it might as well be a grift to get on board other unsuspecting rich fucks…
Either way, we should put these power hoarding dragons to sleep, soon!
Of course they deny that AI is a bubble. Like real estate speculants deny the housing market being a bubble. It simply would be an admission of failure.
I’d rather forgo all of my technology and live like a caveman than use and embrace AI the way these morons want.
Why is that wizened old man dressing in a leather jacket?
wizened?
The “damage control” they’re doing clearly isn’t working that well, eh?
