Isn’t this true of like everything AI right now?
We’re in the “grow a locked-in user base” part of their rollout. We’ll hit the “make money” part in a year or two, and then the enshittification machine will kick into high gear.
We’re in the “grow a locked-in user base” part of their rollout.
An attempt at that. It will be partially successful but with AI accelerators coming to more and more consumer hardware, the hurdles of self-hosting get lower and lower.
I have no clue how to set up an LLM server but installing https://github.com/Acly/krita-ai-tools is easily done with a few mouse clicks. The Krita plugin handles all the background tasks.
Yeah, it’s basically like early days of cable, Uber, Instacart, streaming, etc. They have a lot of capital and are running at a loss to capture the market. Once companies have secured a customer base, they start jacking up the prices.
I doubt it, LLMs have already become significantly more efficient and powerful in just the last couple months.
In a year or two we will be able to run something like Gemini 2.5 Pro on a gaming PC which right now requires a server farm.
when this bubble pops it’s gonna be horrific.
google, meta, ms, so many more leveraged out huge investments in datacenters. nvidia is propping up whole segments of the fucking economy.
https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-a-money-trap/
it’d be fun to watch if I could isolate myself from the chaos that will ensue, but we’re all gonna get fucked by the aibros, it’s only a question of which segment of the economy blows up first.
A lot of startups whose entire business model relies on OpenAI’s small model API calls costing under $1/Mtok, are going to go bust when OpenAI finally runs out of money and ramps the cost up tenfold.
good point, it’s all been artificially priced to get users onboard then dedicated.
Yep it’s blitzscaling. Run it at a loss until it’s a necessity, then charge whatever the hell you want. They’re blitzscaling our right to intellectual property and our right to work.
blitzscaling
TIL there’s a word for it. Thanks
Yeah I’m getting real dot com bubble vibes from all of this.
I think the fallout is going to be much larger.
It would probably be fine if there was someone competent in Whitehouse to manage the fallout.
But since there isn’t, you are very likely correct.
Yep, the only thing I’m 100% confident about in this whole mess is that Trump will find some heretofore unimagined way to make it worse.
the shitwad is consistent I guess…
They will manage the fallout just like the sub-prime crash and PPP program, with huge cash transfers straight to the wealthy.
fuck. and that idiot is all in on cryptocoin and other idiocy. fuck.
Hopefully sooner rather than later, and maybe Elon can stop poisoning a neighborhood in Memphis with Grok
yeah that’s one of the more egregious examples, basically a methane factory that eats prodigious amounts of water and power, all in process of giving us MECHAHITLER.
what’s not to love?
The electrical industry is going to have a real bad time.
yeah secondary knockon effects - once nvidia realizes it’s not going to actually sell 5 gpus per human being, the datacenters for them evaporate, then the power production to feed those datacenters becomes pointless…
an effective administration would mandate all renewable energy for this purpose, so when it implodes they could at least derive a benefit from the expanded production… but no, trump will have them build coal plants for it all. or like grok, methane powered generators fml
Came here to see if someone had mentioned Ed Zitron’s blog. His last two pieces on the AI bubble are fantastic reads.
pretty sure someone here linked it, it’s a long read and worth it.
Any chance you have a link,?
Thanks buddy!
Damn. We’re looking at another recession when this bubble bursts, aren’t we?
Just great.
recessions work themselves out. I’m worried it’ll pitch us into a worldwide depression coupled with trump’s tarriff bullshit.
it’s the 1920s all over again. smoot hawley fascists and clouds of war
Isn’t this just the tech industry. Run at a loss. Eat VC money. Wait. Wait.
Some how you become normalized and suddenly important Next thing you know you’re raking profit.
Like the guy that has no friends who nobody really likes. He won’t go away. He just sticks around. Nobody ever told him to fuck off. So he’s just part of the group.
Yep, and they were helped a lot after the 2008 financial crisis when interest rates were dropped super low and loans were cheap. That’s a major reason why the market has been screaming for the fed to cut the interest rate as much as possible.
Yes, this is part of the business model. The goal is to get everyone addicted to their service, then jack the price up to profitable margins. It’s the same model Netflix and Amazon used. Bothe services lost money for over 10 years before becoming profitable.
In other words, they want to hook up users and companies, make them dependent, and then rise up the prices severely while finding ways to process and incorporate all of the data they’ve gathered in ways that will probably involve automating the jobs of the users themselves.
aka enshittification
When this bubble eventually bursts, and it will, the economic fallout is going to be catastrophic.
This is the best argument I’ve heard in favour of vibe coding
Good. Costs is the key point to get rid of it.
Caveat: this applies to literally every new technology especially in the VC funded world.
You mean Clippy++ 2.0 auto-complete with jpgs isn’t a business model?
So what I am learning is that I should start vibe coding even the small scripts that are less than 10 lines.
Done. I will start doing that.
But they make it up on volume!
I was gonna make a sarcastic comment on how surprised I was that a 5$ subscription is not enough for something so heavy that it requires building new nuclear plants.
But holly shit, ChatGPT+ is 23€/months.
Ha, anyone DOSing them with constant compute requests? I read an article where a 200$ a month user was using tens of thousands of dollars of compute.
In capitalism, everything is a bubble, even capitalism itself. The AI one is going to burst at some point. Then AI becomes a normal thing in the background like everything else we have gone through in this dumbass of a timeline.
