‘It almost doubled our workload’: AI is supposed to make jobs easier. These workers disagree::A new crop of artificial intelligence tools carries the promise of streamlining tasks, improving efficiency and boosting productivity in the workplace. But that hasn’t been Neil Clarke’s experience so far.
In medicine, when a big breakthrough happens, we hear that we could see practical applications of the technology in 5-10 years.
In computer technology, we reach the same level of proof of concept and ship it as a working product, and ignore the old adage “The first 90% of implementation takes 90% of the time, and the last 10% takes the other 90%”.
Which adds up to 180%. And that is all you need to know about deadlines.
I really wish MBA programs and journalism schools would start teaching that technology doesn’t progress linearly (much less exponentially) forever. “Look what it can do today! Imagine in 5 years!” Is there still low-hanging fruit to pick? Because if not, it might be as good as it’s gonna be for awhile.
There’s obviously exceptions where things have gotten steadily better for a very long time. But often, it’s a punctuated equilibrium situation around major scientific advancements. And way more often, business realities pause advancement. (Like maybe OpenAI’s next giant leap forward will have to wait on chip suppliers to expand capacity.)
