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US LNG producers climb as EU agrees to $750 billion in energy purchases
Probably not before a switch away from American LNG.
There are also signs of some deals away from the US. SEFE signed a deal for 1 Mt/year from Canada and Uniper another 2Mt/year.
Good info. A quarter (a bit over) provides enough leverage during “negotiations.” To examine that I picture the effect of cutting 25% of EU’s gas supply and use historical examples of what that looks like.
Here’s what import trends look like without RU and US:
There’s a bit of growth in Norway.
And here’s what US imports look like:
Qatar would be in the Other cat:
That was down prior to the US-Israel war on Iran compares to earlier years.
Would be spectacular if the US gas trend reverses direction but I wouldn’t count on it without significant indignation from EU citizens. Industry needs gas, the US provides gas, industry buys it. Individual players in the industry care about their bottom line, not whether this creates leverage for the US to use in other parts of the economy. It’s the same mechanism that created the dependence on Russian gas. The only way this process changes is through state intervention and that won’t happen unless citizens strongly demand it. Cause industry demands the opposite from the gov’t. It’s a shit predicament. I’m pessimistic but would love to be wrong in 5 years.
Russia was at half of the EUs gas supply and it was also mostly pipeline gas. For LNG it is possible to buy from other suppliers. Unless the US cuts all LNG exports, that is probably going to be a matter of paying enough.
Then the goal of the EU is to cut gas consumption. This is happening as gas boilers are replaced by heat pumps and gas power plants by wind, solar and batteries. It will take years to be really felt, but we see some of it. The key part here is that it is much cheaper to use a pipeline than LNG to transport gas. That obviously hits all LNG, but the US is the largest supplier.
Then the goal of the EU is to cut gas consumption. This is happening as gas boilers are replaced by heat pumps and gas power plants by wind, solar and batteries.
I think this is really the best way out.
Then you get mfkers be like - ‘but Midea is Chinese!’ - completely ignoring the massive difference in real dependence (lesser) created by importing heat pumps, solar, wind and batteries compared to importing and burning gas.
litmus test for a more coercive, transactional U.S. approach to regional partners
That should already provide the answer.
Even if Europe becomes one country, is that enough?
Africa or India is not independent because they don’t have the size to have key technologies on their own. China is the only country that is almost independent from the West.
Now, can part of the west be independent of the west? The EU was at the limit to have an independent aircraft industry. At the moment of the greatest triumph, the A380, the EU missed out on investing heavily in digital technologies, as if the competition had ended.
I think even if we could, we don’t have an alert elite that would. My impression is that we go through the motions for more independence, but it is more to apeace the population than it is to be independent. We don’t put the fingers where it hurts so we are willing to keep those dependencies.
My impression is that we go through the motions for more independence, but it is more to apeace the population than it is to be independent.
This is how it feels around here too. Lots of people hope this time it’s different, and so do I but I’m not holding my breath. I’m waiting to see material changes before I praise anyone.
